I couldn’t help but start thinking recently: “Here we go again!” It’s challenging enough that our federal leaders have to live and produce in a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). But now it’s moving into election season. Oh joy. 

Political nominees will come out of the woodwork to criticize the men and women of the federal service who implement public policy. What’s more, we’re approaching the end of the budget cycle, and agencies are displaying caution in spending for employee development and programmatic needs. VUCA lives. 

I’m not sure there’s a lot any of us can do about budget constraints or self-centered political figures. But it is possible to position ourselves more effectively to lead in this convoluted landscape. It begins by avoiding short cuts and quick fixes driven by our assumptions. 

Let’s be fair to ourselves shall we? Neurologically, the path of least resistance is the preferred route. Neurons communicate with one another. As they do so over time, they ultimately form connections among themselves. If we think something one time, a temporary network is created that ultimately disassociates. But if we replicate the thought over and over again, the network becomes stronger. These thought habits become hard-wired neuronets, and the pathways strengthen and become more established the more times we call on them. 

Indeed, as a path of least resistance, they become the first option for an efficient human brain. That can be advantageous in some settings, but in a VUCA world, it can lead to faulty assumptions if we don’t take the time to think through our decisions. 

Case in Point: Two years ago, my colleague Ruth Zaplin and I wrote an article for The Public Manager in which we challenged the readers to carefully consider their assumptions. We noted that assumptions are not a bad thing, necessarily. In fact, assumptions play a crucial role in everyday survival: they fill in gaps in what we think and perceive, help us make sense out of a complex world. 

As managers, we get pretty good at this. We make quick decisions, make things happen, and waste little time. But assumptions are fraught with risk. In a VUCA world, it’s easy to fall into the trap of not challenging our assumptions. We begin taking them at face value, or fail to recognize them at all. 

There are two other potential problems with making assumptions in the VUCA universe. The first occurs when we act on our assumptions as if they were unconditionally true, and fail to realize that we are doing so. When we don’t recognize we are doing this, we become captive to our assumptions. In other words, our assumptions own us. They are taken as a given—unquestioned and unrecognized. When we unknowingly act on our assumptions as truth, we are, in essence, acting on the mental chatter of our own minds. The alternative is to actively acknowledge and own our assumptions. 

The second complication is that by acting on our assumptions as fact, and not realizing when we are doing it, we fall prey to not being present. We fail to recognize signs around us that are attempting to push us out of our own world and into the world around us. We are not present for ourselves and not present for those around us. This has profound implications on our ability to lead others. 

In times of VUCA, this can be especially problematic because our teams need our presence for support and guidance. Ambiguity creates anxiety among those we lead and volatility generates emotional distress. By stepping outside of our assumptions, we are better able to meet the needs of dedicated public servants trying to make a difference. 

The challenge for the federal leader is to wade through the VUCA world and confront the assumptions that form the lens through which we see and direct others. Self-awareness, reflection, questioning, and humble inquiry can all help. They allow us to assess surface assumptions, question them, and create the opportunity for choice—the key to start making sense of, and having success in, the VUCA world. 

For more insight, join me for my session, “The View on VUCA: Managing Volatility in the Government**,”** at Government Workforce: Learning Innovations. I will discuss how VUCA plays out in government and how you can productively address it when it occurs within your own agency.