Here's a closer look at the growing demand for real-time collaboration-based learning.

According to recent Ambient Insight market research, the 2006 U.S. market for real-time collaboration-based learning products and services is now over $2.6 billion and growing at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5 percent.

In Ambient Insight's taxonomy, real-time collaboration-based learning is defined as live, technology-based human-to-human collaboration and mentoring. As a knowledge transfer method, by definition, collaboration requires the real-time interaction between two or more people.

Until recently, this type of learning product was rarely used outside the corporate enterprise. However, now it is becoming popular with buyers, practitioners, and users in all the customer segments.

While the demand for this product is different in each of the segments, evidence strongly suggests that access to live human experts is the primary appeal of the product. The appeal is not the technology, per se, but the experience made possible by the technology. This is particularly evident in the consumer segment.

Collaboration begins at home

In the learning technology industry, the consumer segment is the only buying segment in which the buyer and the user are identical. In all other segments the buyers and the users are different people. Consequently, the buying behavior in the consumer market tends to provide the best data on customer demand and customer satisfaction.

Consumers prefer collaboration-based products over self-paced courseware. In the consumer segment real-time collaboration-based learning is growing by a five-year CAGR of 50.8 percent while self-paced e-learning has a negative growth rate of -5.8 percent.

This user preference trend is also being borne out in the IT training industry in which individuals are increasingly expected to buy their own training products. When given a choice, IT professionals prefer collaboration-based products over self-paced products. By 2011, virtual labs and virtual classrooms will outsell self-paced e-learning in the IT training industry.

The primary catalyst for this IT trend is that new virtualization technology combined with broadband Internet access and application sharing allows remote users to get real-time procedural guidance from the instructor and actual hands-on experience with technology products. The phrase "remote hands-on experience" is no longer an oxymoron.

There is strong consumer demand for scheduled educational events, live product training, real-time mentoring, and one-to-one language learning. The demand for academic tutoring is particularly strong and reflects the profound changes occurring in the US educational system.

Early collaboration-based education and far reaching implications

The K-12 demand for real-time collaboration-based learning is growing by 43 percent. Early education in the United States places a great emphasis on the presence of human instructors, and when remote learning technology is used, collaboration-based learning is favored over self-paced courseware. Even in the later grades, when self-paced products are used, there is always access to instructors and tutors.

As of 2006, more than 600,000 students have participated in some kind of virtual learning experience. The number of full-time virtual school children is at least 90,000. The largest virtual schools currently are the Utah Electronic High School with some 35,000 students, and the Florida Virtual School with more than 33,000 students. As of 2006, 24 states have implemented virtual school systems and total enrollment across all states is growing by 17-20 percent a year. The growth rates are faster in many of the systems.

In the October 2006 report called, "Keeping Pace with K-12 Online Learning," the authors stated that, "Growth of the number of students in many existing programs has been sustained, with Louisiana Virtual School growing by 18 percent, Virtual High School by 24 percent, Florida Virtual School and Idaho Digital Learning Academy by over 50 percent, and Ohio's eCommunity Schools collectively by 22 percent." If this growth continues, more than 4.5 million students will be enrolled in virtual schools by 2016. Yet this trend is not unique to virtual schools.

There are approximately 3,000 charter schools in the United States with nearly 900,000 enrolled students. Charter schools are private for-profit organizations, and they are moving fast to cyber schools in an effort to reach more students, increase profits, and reduce costs. There are now more than 100 cyber charter schools with over 40,000 students. It is likely that most, if not all, charter school children will be involved in some kind of cyber-schooling by 2016.

Combined with home schooled children supported by online tutors, there will be almost 9 million online students by 2016. However, these changes in early education pale in comparison to the changes taking place in higher education.

Higher ed embraces collaboration

In higher education live remote instruction is a small part of the overall curriculum. Self-paced products still dominate this segment. Yet, the higher education segment has the highest five-year growth rate for real-time collaboration-based learning out of all the buying segments and is growing by 65.4 percent.

There are two sub-segments in the higher education market; for-profit and non-profit organizations. The for-profits are moving fast to real-time collaboration-based learning in an effort to attract students. Strayer Online is a good example. All of its online classes are offered first as live events. Its online student enrollments have been growing annually by 20-25 percent and it now has 18,662 students that take 100 percent of its classes online.

There are now at least 600,000 full-time online students in the U.S. post-secondary system and most, so far, are enrolled in for-profit schools. By 2016, an estimated 4.1 million students will be full-time online students at for-profit schools. The non-profits are also moving in this direction.

In 2005, a report by the California Community Colleges stated, "It is estimated that by 2015-16, as much as 20 percent of total enrollment may be in distance education courses." Higher education trends in California have traditionally been reliable leading indicators for the rest of the country.

The number of U.S. students at non-profit institutions that take at least some of their courses online is growing by 35 percent, according to the Sloan Consortium. There will be 21.3 million students in non-profit schools by 2016. If just 15 percent go fully online by 2016, then 3.2 million students will be paying tuition for an online education.

Combined, the full-time online students in both for-profit and non-profit schools will reach 7.3 million by 2016. At least 16.5 million will take one or more of their classes online. By 2016, students who take all their classes in physical classrooms will be in the minority. Virtually all of the students (online or not) that take advantage of tutoring or mentoring will do so online.

One of the most interesting implications of this academic trend is that we are now matriculating students that have never stepped foot in a physical classroom. Evidence suggests that government and corporate employers will be ready for them.

Government buyers migrate to collaboration

Research at Ambient Insight finds that the five-year growth rate for real-time collaboration-based learning in the U.S. federal government segment is 18 percent. The federal government uses the technology to train employees and soldiers. Many agencies also subsidize free live interactive events for organizations and citizens.

There has always been a healthy market for collaboration-based learning in the civilian agencies and it is popular with employees. The National Highway Institute (NHI) is the training and education arm of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and uses the Adobe Acrobat Connect product for more than 30 live training events a month. The NHI indicates that the attendance has grown by 61 percent in the last year.

Global Mentoring Solutions is an example of a supplier that provides "federal employees with answers-on-demand for self-study and on-the-job application of information technology, desktop, and business skills."

The demand for collaboration-based learning is being accelerated by mandatory telework initiatives and the effort to increase inter-agency cooperation, something federal agencies have in common with local and state agencies.

Local and state governments respond

The demand for real-time collaboration in the local and state government segment is growing by 51.7 percent, and is being driven by the need for inter-agency cooperation. A good example is the need to train the two million first responders in Homeland Security protocols.

For example, Incident Command System (ICS) is a training standard for coordinating emergency management efforts in compliance with the Department of Homeland Security's National Incident Management System (NIMS) mandate.

The Miami-Dade Police Department (MDPD) uses Adobe's Acrobat Connect product for this type of training. The State of Hawaii Civil Defense Division uses WiredRed's e/pop product for ICS training.

Yet there are general training needs as well in this segment. In January 2006, the state of Oregon selected iLinc to provide real-time collaboration services to the Oregon Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services, and the Public Employee Retirement System.

Early adopters spread the word

The original demand for collaboration-based learning products was from corporate enterprise training buyers. Real-time collaboration-based learning is steadily replacing both classroom and self-paced e-learning in the enterprise. But the rapid growth in the small and medium business (SMB) sub-segment is the interesting story in this segment.

There are now several dozen "disruptor" suppliers that target the SMB exclusively with low-cost, "enterprise quality" products and services. Suppliers tend to market sophisticated technology to enterprise and large organization (LORG) buyers. In contrast, suppliers that market to SMB buyers tend to reduce the complexity of technology.

Simple screen sharing applications are very popular with small business owners who need to demo products and train customers. This type of product is growing by a five-year CAGR of 82.5 percent, driven largely by non-enterprise buyers.

Associations go virtual

The market for real-time collaboration-based learning in the U.S. non-profit and association segment is growing at a five-year CAGR of 20.5 percent. The vast majority of this spending is in the development and delivery of continuing education (CE) events.

Most CE events are still delivered at physical sites and the delivery costs are steep. The associations are now highly motivated to reduce the cost of physical classroom events and are moving steadily to virtual classrooms.

Continuing education is not the only demand for real-time collaboration-based learning in this segment. For example, Habitat for Humanity uses the HP Virtual Room technology for their global training events. The Society of Automotive Engineers uses the SiteScape product to deliver virtual learning events to over 90,000 global members.

Healthcare prognosis is collaboration

Ambient Insight finds that real-time collaboration-based learning in the U.S. Healthcare segment is growing at a five-year CAGR of 28.2 percent. Web-based Continuing Medical Education, or CME, is growing at a rate of 11.1 percent, while traditional meetings and conferences are declining by -14.6 percent. Most of that web-based CME is self-paced e-learning, although at least 10-12 percent is in real-time collaboration-based learning.

Healthcare organization, particularly those involved with information technology, are avid buyers of real-time collaboration-based learning products. American Health Information Management Association (AHIMA) is a good example. AHIMA uses the Vcall product for over 50 live virtual class events a year. Attendance has been doubling since 2003 and AHIMA now serves over 20,000 students a year.

Appeal is the effect of the collaborative experience

The wide demand now for real-time collaboration-based learning across all the buyer segments is driven by a number of economic, technical, and social factors, but it is the positive user experience that accounts for most of the demand.

Practitioners also like collaboration-based products and one clear indication of this is the growing demand for training and certification in the effective use of real-time collaboration-based learning. The root of this positive experience among practitioners and users alike may be the effectiveness of the knowledge transfer.

In a seminal study known as the "Two Sigma Problem," Bloom found that the achievement of individually-tutored students may exceed that of 98 percent classroom students by as much as two standard deviations, referred to as a two-sigma shift. Hundreds of meta-studies over the last twenty years confirm that one-to-one tutoring is still the most effective knowledge transfer method known in the industry.

For the first time in the short history of learning technology, there is now a product that not only supports this knowledge transfer method, but can also enhance it. Real-time collaboration-based learning is perhaps the first learning product that is simply a means to an end. It is effective and people like it. The appeal is the experience.

References

Adkins, S., (2006). The US Market for Real-time Collaboration-based Learning Products and Services: 2006-2011 Forecast and Analysis. Ambient Insight, LLC.

Adkins, S., and Burger, J., (2006). Follow the Money: 2006-2011 Real-time Collaboration-based Learning Revenues in the IT Training Industry. Ambient Insight, LLC.

Allen, I. E., and Seaman, J., (2006). Making the Grade: Online Education in the United States, 2006. Babson Survey Research Group and the Sloan Consortium.

Bloom, B. S. (1984). The 2 Sigma Problem: The search for methods of group instruction as effective as one-to-one tutoring. Educational Researcher, 13 (6), 4-16.

California Community Colleges (2005). Distance Education Report: Fiscal Years 1995-96 through 2003-04. Prepared by the Academic Affairs and Instructional Resources Unit Educational Services Division System Office, California Community Colleges.

Watson, J., and Ryan, J., (2006) Keeping Pace with K-12 Online Learning: A Review of State-Level Policy and Practice. Evergreen Consulting Associates.