Studies exploring the future of work often focus on job elimination rather than newly created roles. Research presented by Yu-Ling Chang in her doctoral dissertation, "Envisioning the Future of Work and the Workforce With Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)," pioneers XAI application to identify the 10 fastest-growing work archetypes.

The research uses XAI to link Occupational Information Network (O\*NET) database variables with 10-year employment projections from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to Chang, typical AI applications can be "black boxes" with opaque processing that cannot provide explanations for how AI comes to its results, raising concerns about accountability, bias, and fairness. Conversely, XAI prioritizes making AI decisions and outputs transparent and understandable to humans.

"XAI aims to ensure that AI systems can explain how they arrived at a specific decision or conclusion, especially in complex scenarios involving decisions that impact people," says Chang, who earned her doctorate in workforce education and development from the Pennsylvania State University and is the recipient of ATD's 2024 Dissertation Award.

Combining the data extracted using XAI with a critical evaluation of existing literature, Chang isolated 10 work archetypes—categories of work with unique compositions of activities, knowledge, skills, abilities, interests, values, and work styles—that the research shows will grow the fastest between 2021 and 2031. Within the 10 archetypes fall 128 occupations, accounting for 17 percent of all jobs for the US and about 21.3 million employees in 2031, as projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 10 work archetypes are:

• Creatives

• Sages (knowledge work)

• Wizards (applied science work)

• Supporters

• Caregivers

• Nurturers

• Explorers

• Hands-on

• Data scientists

• Frontliners

The study highlights the necessary skills and capabilities for each archetype, as well as potential roles, responsibilities, and tasks. For instance, the Sages archetype centers around knowledge work and will require such skills as thinking creatively and analyzing and processing information through logical reasoning or scientific processes. Some example occupations for that archetype include market research analysts, data scientists, and economists.

Chang states that previous studies assumed that a single skill could predict future employment, which she believes is "oversimplified and flawed." Instead, her research finds that "the impact of each work activity, task, knowledge, skill, and ability on predicting future employment growth varies based on the types of roles."

For example, she notes that negotiation skills may be crucial in some types of work but less important or even detrimental in others. Additionally, while earlier studies predicted working with machines would be promising in the future, Chang's research finds that roles emphasizing people orientation will rise.

The study also uncovers six work archetypes that are declining across technical, operative, and administrative domains, and it explores eight roles that are expanding, such as strategic technology workers, agile healthcare workers, business analytics workers, and empathetic leaders.

Overall, the data reveals that the future of work will require "hybrid talents and skills, highlighting the importance of adaptability and continuous learning in the evolving job market," Chang says. "The research contributes to a more accurate and informed understanding of the future of work, helping stakeholders make better decisions in a rapidly changing environment."

She adds: "By focusing on specific skills, competencies, and worker characteristics associated with employment growth, my research provides a more targeted and strategic approach to talent development and workforce planning."